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CryptonicTools

How to estimate token dilution impact

Open tool

Model how unlocks or new supply can change per-token value assumptions using simple dilution math next to market cap / FDV.

Open the tool

Make upcoming supply increases visible so FDV and float stories are not hand-waved.

Launch Supply Dilution Impact

Purpose

Make upcoming supply increases visible so FDV and float stories are not hand-waved.

When to use it

  • A vesting cliff or unlock calendar approaches
  • You compare FDV vs circulating narratives
  • You stress-test “price holds while supply rises”
  • You read tokenomics before sizing

How to use it

  1. Enter current supply and price. Align definitions with the explorer or token page you trust.
  2. Add unlock or issuance amount. Use the unlock you are studying — not every future emission at once unless that is the question.
  3. Read dilution impact. See illustrative per-unit effects under the tool’s assumptions.
  4. Cross-check FDV and vesting. Open market cap / FDV and vesting calculators for the full picture.

Benefits

  • Unlock awareness before headlines
  • Pairs with FDV tools
  • Educational tokenomics aid
  • Free local model

Pitfalls to avoid

  • Markets price unlocks early
  • Treasury sales ≠ automatic float
  • Supply definitions conflict across sites
  • Not price prediction

When dilution math helps vs misleads

Helpful for order-of-magnitude float changes. Misleading if you assume constant market cap while supply jumps — buyers and sellers renegotiate price. Use the tool as a scenario, then check liquidity and slippage.

Worked example and mistakes

If circulating supply rises 10% and you assume constant cap, illustrative price pressure is ~9% lower per token — markets may move more or less. Common mistake: double-counting already-circulating team tokens.

Related links

Updated 2026-09-18. Educational only — not financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

What is supply dilution impact?+

It estimates how an unlock or new issuance changes your ownership share and implied per-token value if market cap stayed constant.

Does price always fall on unlocks?+

No. Markets price expectations early. This model isolates mechanical share dilution, not sentiment.

Is FDV the same as dilution?+

Related but different. FDV assumes fully diluted supply at today’s price. Dilution impact focuses on your share before vs after an unlock event.

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